Happy New Year!

As we close the book on 2025, I find myself feeling deeply grateful. It was a year full of surprises — some good, some challenging — and the theme that kept coming up again and again was affordability. Buyers felt the pressure. Sellers felt it too. And all of us were navigating a market that didn’t behave the way many expected.

Still, even in a year marked by uncertainty, I’m thankful for the clients, friends, and neighbors who trusted us to guide them — those moments matter more than anything.

In this month’s issue, you’ll find the latest look at market trends, including why affordability played such a large role in the homes that didn’t sell this past year — and what that means for everyone heading into 2026.

And Finally… in this month’s closing section, I’m taking a more personal look forward. We’re expanding The Carpenter Group, and I’m grateful for the direction we’re heading. I’m especially proud to share that my son Sam is joining our company. Having him step into the business is exciting, and I couldn’t be happier to build this next chapter with him involved.

As winter settles in and the pace slows just enough to breathe (a little nod to my yoga practice), I’m looking forward to a season of reflection, planning, and quiet focus. Thank you for being part of our community, and for reading *HomeTown*. There’s a lot to look forward to in the months ahead.

Inventory, Affordability, and What to Expect in 2026

By Scott Carpenter, The Carpenter Group

As we turn the page into the new year, people keep asking me the same question: “Scott, where is this market going — and is affordability ever going to improve?” And honestly, I understand why. Interest rates have bounced around, inflation continues to be a headline, affordability is stretched thin for many buyers, and it feels like every economist has a different prediction. But in the middle of all that noise, one thing remains steady—people still need a place to live. Life doesn’t pause because the market feels uncertain. Moves still happen. Jobs shift, families adjust, and people continue making decisions about their homes.

One of the biggest storylines heading into 2026 is the rise in expired listings. We’ve seen an increase in inventory across the country, but we’ve also seen more homes quietly come off the market without selling. Most listing agreements run about six months, and many of them end on December 31st. So on January 1st, we expect a wave of expired listings—a few hundred here in Northeast Ohio alone.

And here’s the thing: these homes didn’t expire because there were no buyers. We actually had plenty of buyers last year. The real problem usually comes down to price and presentation. Sometimes a seller couldn’t make the repairs the home needed. Sometimes the house was perfectly nice but located in an area where comparable sales just didn’t support the seller’s expectations. And sometimes a home was priced too high from the very beginning because another agent promised a number they knew the market couldn’t support—just to secure the listing agreement. It’s unfortunate, but it happens more often than most people realize.

When those listings expire, that’s when my work really begins. Many people think the solution is as simple as lowering the price or swapping out a few photos, but it’s rarely that easy. When I take on an expired listing, I don’t just “refresh” it—I rethink it. I take the time to understand what went wrong, what was missing, and what buyers weren’t seeing. We start by reimagining how the home is presented, because presentation matters more than most sellers have been told. We invest in professional photography, video, and aerial views—visual storytelling that helps buyers imagine themselves living in a home before they ever schedule a showing. That emotional connection is powerful, and it’s often what was missing the first time around.

But presentation is only the beginning. Marketing is where the real difference shows up. We spend real money—every single month—bringing tens of thousands of buyers to our website and to our listing ads. We don’t rely on one platform or wait for the MLS to “do the work.” We create targeted campaigns across Facebook, Google, and dozens of other channels so that your home is seen, remembered, and revisited by serious buyers. When people scroll past our listings, they come back to them because the visuals, the story, and the strategy make them feel something. They can picture themselves in the kitchen. They can imagine morning coffee on the patio. They begin planning their life there before stepping through the door.

And all the while, we’re watching how buyers behave behind the scenes. We can see which homes they’re viewing, how often they’re returning, and when their interest spikes. Sometimes the right buyer is already in our database, actively searching for a home like yours, and reconnecting them to your property is simply a matter of timing and strategy.

So when I say we do things differently, that’s what I mean. We don’t just relist a home—we reintroduce it to the market with intention, creativity, and a strategy built around what buyers can realistically afford today. Affordability is one of the biggest challenges in this market. Buyers are stretched, cautious, and far more selective than they’ve been in years. That means a home has to be priced, presented, and marketed in a way that connects with the buyers who can afford it, not the ones we wish existed.

It’s not about starting over; it’s about starting smarter. It’s about understanding how affordability shapes buyer behavior and adjusting the plan so your home lands in front of the right people—the ones who are both interested and able to make a move. When we put a home back on the market, we do it knowing exactly where buyers are looking, what they’re responding to, and what price points feel within reach for them.

If your listing has expired—or you suspect it will soon—know that you’ll be getting phone calls from agents on January 1st. And in a market where affordability is top of mind for everyone, you deserve more than rushed sales pitches. If you’d prefer a calmer, honest, thoughtful conversation instead, give me a call. I’m always happy to sit down with you, talk through what happened, and help you chart a better, more realistic path forward with confidence.

Top 5 Reasons Listings Expire and How Affordability Plays a Big Role

1. The price didn’t match the market.

This is still the number one reason. Buyers are informed, and in an era where affordability is stretched thin, they have zero patience for overpriced homes. If the price doesn’t align with what similar homes are actually selling for, they simply move on.

2. Condition issues the seller couldn’t address.

Not everyone can renovate before selling. But when a home needs work, buyers automatically subtract those repair costs from what they can afford. If the listing price doesn’t reflect that reality, they’ll skip the showing entirely.

3. The location didn’t support the asking price.

Even beautiful homes struggle if the surrounding sales don’t support the number the seller wants. With affordability already tight, buyers won’t stretch their budget for a home that isn’t backed up by neighborhood comps.

4. The marketing wasn’t strong enough.

In a competitive, affordability-challenged market, presentation matters. Weak photos, poor online visibility, and limited exposure make buyers assume a home isn’t worth the price. Strong marketing not only attracts attention—it reassures buyers that the home fits their budget and lifestyle.

5. The home was overpriced from the start because the agent overpromised.

Some agents “buy the listing” by telling sellers they can get a price that the market simply won’t support. In a world where affordability is already an obstacle for buyers, this strategy almost guarantees the home will sit, stall, and eventually expire.

Staying Ahead in Changing Conditions

Lakewood

Lakewood has 1.62 months of inventory, down 12% month over month and 17% year over year. Median new listings are priced at $267,009; the median sold price is $305,750, reflecting a 1% decrease month over month. Median days on market for sold listings rose 57% month over month to 22 days.

The Impact: Buyers and sellers need to coordinate timing closely due to shrinking supply and fluctuating prices. Longer days on market and slight price decreases suggest potential negotiation leverage for buyers.

Action Plan: Evaluate your timeline to make the most of current market conditions. Price your listings competitively to match active and pending trends. Stay alert to inventory and days on market to adjust your strategy quickly.

Shaker Heights

Inventory and supply stand at 1.22 months, showing limited availability. Inventory declined 16% month over month and 38% year over year. The median sold price dropped 30% month over month to $345,000, while median active list price is $239,000. Median days on market for sold listings increased 388% month over month to 39 days.

The Impact: Low inventory keeps competition high, impacting timing for both buyers and sellers. Sellers face falling prices, while buyers may find more negotiating power.

Action Plan: Coordinate sale and purchase timelines to navigate low inventory effectively. Monitor pricing trends closely and price listings strategically. Prepare for longer days on market impacting transaction timing.

Cleveland Heights

Cleveland Heights has 1.31 months of supply, down 17% month over month and 68% year over year. The median new listing price is $215,000; median active listing price is $220,000. Median days on market for new pending listings increased 39% month over month to 32 days.

The Impact: Low inventory and rising days on market make timing critical for buyers and sellers. Rising sold prices benefit sellers but increase costs for buyers.

Action Plan: Plan transaction timelines carefully. Leverage rising sold prices if selling, and prepare for higher costs if buying. Stay updated on market trends to inform decisions.

Cuyahoga County

With 1.89 months supply, inventory dropped 15% month over month and 9% year over year. Median sold price is $220,000, down 2% month over month. Median days on market for sold listings remained stable at 16 days.

The Impact: Reduced inventory means timing buying and selling is key. Price trends help set realistic expectations for both buyers and sellers.

Action Plan: Align your buying and selling activities to avoid gaps. Price listings competitively based on market data. Monitor days on market to adjust strategies quickly.

Lorain County

Lorain County has 1.67 months of inventory, down 14% month over month and 11% year over year. Median sold price rose 2% month over month to $275,500. Median days on market for sold listings increased 33% month over month to 16 days.

The Impact: Lower inventory means faster decisions are needed. Rising prices benefit sellers but challenge buyers to act quickly.

Action Plan: Evaluate buying and selling options given current inventory. Use median prices to set competitive listing prices. Factor days on market into your transaction timing.

Data sourced from RPR

Kick off 2026 with smart strategies to get ahead in the real estate market. Whether you’re buying or selling, early preparation helps you maximize opportunities and avoid costly mistakes. Let’s explore simple tips to make this your most successful year yet.

“TIPS FOR HOME SELLERS”

“TIPS FOR HOME BUYERS”

Maximize Offers This Year

Price competitively but realistically
Enhance curb appeal immediately
Stage rooms for impact
Market aggressively on multiple platforms
Be flexible with showings

Buy Smart Early 2026

Get mortgage pre-approval first
Research neighborhoods before deciding
Schedule inspections early always
Monitor market trends closely
Work with experienced agents

The Holiday Advantage: Why December Creates Opportunities Most People Miss

By Matt Panigutti, Loan Originator, American Pacific Mortgage

The holidays slow things down just enough for families to notice how their home fits their life. These quiet moments often spark big questions about moving, upgrading, or buying. December is more than a pause—it’s a chance to plan smartly for what’s next.

Buyers Have an Edge in December

Most buyers step back during the holidays, but those who stay active face less competition and stronger negotiating power. Sellers listing now tend to be motivated, and the lighter workload for lenders and inspectors means deals often close faster. Starting your process this month puts you ahead for early 2026.

Sellers Gain Unexpected Leverage

Holiday buyers are serious and fewer homes on the market mean your listing stands out. Festive décor and cozy atmospheres help buyers connect emotionally. Selling now also sets you up with more flexibility and power when it’s time to buy again.

Financing Brings Clarity and Confidence

Understanding your affordability, home equity, and the best financial path lets you act quickly and decisively. Whether you’re buying, selling, or both, proper planning turns holiday reflections into a clear, confident strategy.

The Holidays Change How You See Home

This season highlights what works and what doesn’t in your living space. Those insights are powerful guides for your next move, helping turn conversations into confident decisions.

Start Now for a Strong New Year

December is the perfect time to explore your options without pressure. With expert support available through the holidays, you can begin the new year ready to move with confidence and clarity.

Matt Panigutti is a Loan Originator with American Pacific Mortgage. You may contact him directly by phone 📞(216) 366-8202 or by email 📧mpanigutti@apmortgage.com.

With the new year ahead, we tend to reflect on what we want to change and what we hope to accomplish — the commitments we make to ourselves, our well-being, our families, and our work. But this year, I keep coming back to the idea that planning change is very different from "being" change. Anyone can make a list of goals. Real impact comes from steady, intentional actions over time — not bold declarations on January 1st.

That truth feels especially meaningful for me right now. We’re growing The Carpenter Group, and instead of treating it like a checklist, we’re embracing who we are becoming. I’m especially proud that my son Sam Carpenter is joining the company and becoming a REALTOR®. Watching him step into the business is something that makes me incredibly proud and grateful.

We’re also welcoming Sylvia Fajardo, who will be joining forces with Ken Wojtach, a steady and trusted part of our team for more than a year now. Together, they’ll lead what we call our "Client Care & Outreach Team" — a warm, service-oriented alternative to the old “inside sales” model. Their focus is simple but important: real conversations with real people. Listening. Understanding goals. Helping new clients with their next steps. Connecting them with guidance, resources, and support. It’s not about selling — it’s about serving, and both Sylvia and Ken are exceptional at service.

As winter settles in and the pace slows just enough to breathe (a nod to my yoga practice), I’m leaning into this season with gratitude and intention. A little more reflection. A little more focus. A little more being present in the work and relationships that matter most. I hope you have the space in your lives to do the same.

Thank you for being part of our community and for taking the time to read HomeTown. My wish for you in the months ahead is simple: peace, prosperity, and steady, meaningful progress — the kind that truly lasts — towards whatever you hope to be in 2026.

Happy New Year,

Scott Carpenter

Inventory, Affordability, and What to Expect in 2026

Top 5 Reasons Listings Expire and How Affordability Plays a Big Role